Chuck Edwards' abrupt exit leaves Republicans scrambling

Chuck Edwards' abrupt exit leaves Republicans scrambling

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3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Chuck Edwards' abrupt exit leaves Republicans scrambling

* Kate Santaliz

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!Rep. Chuck Edwards departs after a candlelight vigil in honor of National Police Week at the U.S. Capitol on May 12.

*Rep. Chuck Edwards departs after a candlelight vigil in honor of National Police Week at the U.S. Capitol on May 12. Photo: Graeme Sloan/Getty Images*

For Speaker Mike Johnson, Rep. Chuck Edwards' decision to drop his re-election bid just trades one problem for another.

**Why it matters**: Instead of trying to hold a vulnerable seat with a scandal-ridden candidate, Republicans now have to scramble for a replacement who'll be starting at square one three months out from Election Day against a well-funded Democrat.

* North Carolina's 11th District already was in Democrats' sights long before Edwards became the target of a House Ethics probe this spring — and things were not trending Republicans' way.
* Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the race from "lean Republican" to "toss-up" last Thursday, after Edwards' Democratic opponent, Jamie Ager, significantly outraised him in the second quarter.
* Then the House Ethics Committee concluded Monday that Edwards violated House rules over sexual harassment and creating a hostile work environment based on his conduct toward female staffers — and recommended his censure.

**After Edwards abruptly dropped out** via social media very early this morning, GOP operatives privately acknowledged the seat was in trouble — and the late shakeup has only weakened their position.

* One North Carolina Republican told Axios that Edwards had already "soured" the party's chances of holding the seat.

**Zoom in:** National Republicans will be forced to pour money into the race, as the replacement nominee will have to quickly build a campaign from the ground up.

* Ager is already fundraising off Edwards' abrupt exit, texting supporters Wednesday: "Our Republican opponent dropped out today. While we don't know yet who we'll face in November, we need to be prepared for anything. Political experts have called this race a 𝙏𝙊𝙎𝙎-𝙐𝙋 so this seat will be critical to flip the House blue."

**Driving the news:** "After much prayer and reflection, I've decided to withdraw from my re-election campaign. I will complete my current term," Edwards wrote in a 3:32am ET post on X.

* The ethics panel's findings corroborated several incidentsfirst reported by Axios, including handwritten correspondence, personal gifts, drinking outings and casino trips, and cited them as supporting evidence for its findings.

**Between the lines:** Republicans are also bracing for Democrats to try to force a vote on expelling Edwards, a move that could further complicate the GOP's narrow House majority.

* Edwards is likely to be censured when the House returns from its August recess, and the vote is expected to garner broad bipartisan support.
* The House Democratic Women's Caucus called on Edwards to resign Monday, arguing that censure "has no real consequences," Axios first reported.
* Democrats also see an opportunity to keep attention on the case as they push for tougher penalties for lawmakers found to have engaged in sexual misconduct.

**Zoom out:** Edwards is just the latest House Republican whose ethics troubles have complicated what should have been a relatively safe reelection campaign.

* Reps. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) and Max Miller (R-Ohio) have also put otherwise comfortable seats into play for Democrats over their own scandals.

**What's next:** The Executive Committee of North Carolina's 11th District will meet Monday at 6:30pm to choose a replacement nominee, according to an email obtained by Axios.

* North Carolina Republicans are increasingly coalescing around state Sen. Tim Moffitt as Edwards' replacement.
* Some Republicans who had been eyeing the seat are shying away, worried about the abbreviated campaign and increasingly difficult political environment.

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