Somalia: Erdogan tightens security measures to protect Ankara’s investments - Il Sole 24 ORE

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NAIROBI – There is a watershed moment in relations between Turkey and Somalia: 19 August 2011, the day of Recep Erdogan’s ‘historic’ visit to the country in the Horn of Africa and the start of a new phase in security, strategic and now energy ties between Ankara and Mogadishu. The Somali Foreign Minister, Abdisalam Abdi Ali, marked the fifteenth anniversary and expressed his hope for relations to reach a level “even greater” than that achieved today. Ankara is accommodating his wishes.

Turkey has stepped up and accelerated its support for Somalia’s defence, ranging from increased military supplies to the latest anti-piracy operations off the coast, right through to allegations – which it has denied – of a role in drone strikes on the separatist region of Puntland. This escalation appears to stem from Turkey’s need to safeguard its investments in Mogadishu, such as the drilling operations launched off the Somali coast and the planned space base and missile test range on the Indian Ocean coast.

One of the most sensitive issues is that of energy, given the scale and the expectations put forward by Mogadishu regarding its potential. The Somali authorities claim estimated reserves of 30 billion barrels of oil, equivalent to a quarter of those claimed by the United Arab Emirates: a significant asset for Ankara’s ambitions, against the backdrop of the reshaping of the regional balance of power and Ankara’s expansionist aspirations in the Red Sea.

Somalia’s significance in Turkey’s strategic outlook is already reflected in a two-pronged decision by Ankara: to establish its largest embassy in the world in Mogadishu and its most significant military base outside Turkey’s borders: Camp Turksom, established in 2017 with the aim of training 10,000 Somali soldiers and which remains, to this day, the backbone of Turkey’s presence in the country. We are now witnessing an ‘escalation that is more qualitative than quantitative’, explains Bravin Honditi of the Horn Research Centre, in terms of support for Somalia against the threats posed by al-Shabaab jihadists and other regional threats. ‘Turkey has crossed several thresholds that are changing whatrepresentsin Somalia,’ says Honditi, citing the growing number of Ankara’s ground and air operations in the country: the first deployment of F-16 fighter jets in January, alongside ground combat operations against al-Shabaab, the supply of conventional armoured vehicles such as M48 and M60 tanks in February, and the training and provision of heavy equipment to the Gorgor programme, following the swearing-in of a brigade jointly trained in Manisa.

In July 2026, the Turkish mission mandate was extended until the same month in 2028, whilst the number of Turkish troops reached 800 in 2025. The ceiling set by the mandate is 2,500, in a scenario characterised by long-term commitments: armoured vehicles, says Onditi, ‘involve holding positions on the ground against an organised adversary rather than against an insurgency’.

The maritime dimension represents an even ‘more significant’ change, explains Serhat Süha Çubukçuoğlu of Trends, a think tank based in Abu Dhabi. Çubukçuoğlu points out that the 2024 cooperation and defence agreement committed Turkey “to helping Somalia protect its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone from piracy, illegal fishing, smuggling and foreign intrusions. In particular, from rival countries or regions such as Kenya and Yemen’. Ankara has sent its own ships to protect drilling and seismic survey operations, and is planning a naval base to train Somali personnel and serve as a support hub between Bab el-Mandeb and the Indian Ocean.

The anti-piracy operations carried out in September, such as the recovery of the Cameroonian vessel Lutuf, reveal a shift in operational approach: fromcapacity buildingto direct interventions. “Somali and Turkish forces recovered the vessel, destroyed the pirates’ skiffs and killed 14 suspected pirates,” says Çubukçuoğlu – “The incident demonstrated Turkey’s ability to combine naval assets, helicopters, drones and Somali ground forces in an anti-piracy mission on the ground.”

Ankara’s escalation appears to be driven by a combination of factors: the protection of its economic interests across Somalia and strategic objectives linked to its own investments. Today, Ankara controls Mogadishu’s airport and port, administers the exclusive economic zone off the coast, and has secured semi-exclusive rights to offshore gas and oil exploration, which began with its vessel Çağrı Bey in April. ‘Turkey has invested heavily in Somalia and now has interests ranging from security and defence to energy, including offshore exploration, and strategic projects such as the satellite launch site north of Mogadishu,’ explains Federico Donelli of the University of Trieste. The growing military presence, says Donelli, is a “means of protecting and consolidating this projection, which now extends not only to Somalia but also to the region, covering the Gulf of Aden and the western Indian Ocean”.

Another pressing issue stems from internal tensions within the country: the separatist unrest pervading the Federal Republic, amongst the pro-independence administrations of Somaliland, Puntland and Jubaland, and the unrest plaguing Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s presidency. Greater centralisation ‘could ensure greater stability and protection for its political and economic interests’, says Donelli. The result is the defence and ‘shoring up’ of Mohamud’s power in the country, even at the cost of direct clashes with the autonomous administrations and indirect clashes with external partners. ‘Ankara has long supported the federal government, whilst Puntland and Jubaland have grown ever closer to the Emirates,’ explains Corrado Čok of the Med-Or Foundation – “To safeguard their own interests, the Turks have decided to shore up Mohamud, and this includes providing support in the clashes between the government and the autonomous regions, which they would like to bring back under central control.”

This approach has spilled over into controversial initiatives. Turkey has been accused of carrying out air raids on the coast of Puntland as part of the operation to recover the vessel Lutuf, a claim also echoed in the protests that erupted in the town of Doolow, in the Jubaland region, following the attack on the home of General Mahad Abdirahman Aden: a former officer critical of Mohamud’s policies. The details remain unclear, explains Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group, but there is talk of a raid targeting a figure hostile to the federal government. “It is likely that this incident will further heighten tensions in this part of Somalia,” says Mahmood.

Argomenti:Lavoro, Unione europea, Africa

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