Separatists Are Poised to Win Quebec’s Election. Independence Is Still a Hard Sell.

Separatists Are Poised to Win Quebec’s Election. Independence Is Still a Hard Sell. - The New York Times

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Canada|Separatists Are Set to Win Quebec’s Election. What Will It Mean for Independence?

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/world/canada/quebec-election-independence-parti-quebecois-separatism.html

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!People sitting in a room watch a man speaking on a screen projected onto a wooden wall.

Separatists Are Set to Win Quebec’s Election. What Will It Mean for Independence?

The Parti Québécois has vowed to hold a referendum on independence, three decades after Quebec voted “no.” Voters want change, but maybe not that much.

*Supporters at the Québec Solidaire campaign office in Quebec City watching Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the rival Parti Québécois, in a provincial election debate last month.*

Separatists Are Set to Win Quebec’s Election. What Will It Mean for Independence?

The Parti Québécois has vowed to hold a referendum on independence, three decades after Quebec voted “no.” Voters want change, but maybe not that much.

Supporters at the Québec Solidaire campaign office in Quebec City watching Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the rival Parti Québécois, in a provincial election debate last month.Credit...

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By Norimitsu Onishi

Photographs by Renaud Philippe

Reporting from Quebec City and Montreal

Oct. 3, 2026

In Limoilou, a neighborhood not far from Old Quebec’s cobblestone streets, there were few outward signs of support for Quebec’s independence: no fleur-de-lis flags, no “oui” signs in the windows of homes or shops. Candidates knocking on doors heard voter concerns about rising food prices, the trade war with the United States and even cannabis — not about breaking away from Canada and forging a sovereign nation.

The Parti Québécois — the party that held two previous, unsuccessful referendums on independence — has vowed to call a third if it wins Monday’s provincial election. Polls show that it is favored to win despite low support for independence itself across the French-speaking province.

More than three decades since Quebec last said “no” to independence, the Parti Québécois is finding it harder to persuade voters to leave Canada — even in historically separatist neighborhoods like Limoilou in Quebec City.

At a public square on Limoilou’s main avenue, François Bonneau recalled voting for independence in the referendums of 1980 and 1995, moved by the history of discrimination against French Québécois like himself. But over the years, he came to envision Quebec’s future within Canada.

“If we’re together, it makes us stronger,” Mr. Bonneau, 69, said. “If we separate, we’ll be smaller, less powerful.”

The Parti Québécois leads in the polls because voters want change after eight years of the Coalition Avenir Québec, a pro-business, center-right party led by Christine Fréchette, who became premier in April after the resignation of the deeply unpopular François Legault. The Parti Québécois is also benefiting from an electorate split among four other major parties, though it is not clear it will get more than half of the 127 seats required to form a majority government. Many voters are turned off by its commitment to a third referendum, political analysts say.

Norimitsu Onishi reports on life, society and culture in Canada. He is based in Montreal.

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