Japan’s New CIA Could Be Takaichi’s Trump Card

Japan's New CIA Could Be Takaichi's Trump Card

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Analysis: Japan’s New CIA Could Be Takaichi’s Trump Card

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Analysis

Japan’s New CIA Could Be Takaichi’s Trump Card

After decades of reticence, Tokyo is expanding its intelligence gathering abroad.

By **Derek Grossman**, a professor of political science and international relations at the University of Southern California.

!Trump and Takaichi

*Trump and Takaichi*

U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi arrive to speak to troops aboard the USS George Washington in Yokosuka, Japan, on Oct. 28, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

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September 22, 2026, 9:21 AM

When Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi meets with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly today, she will have a new plan at her disposal to highlight how Tokyo will do more for the U.S.-Japan security alliance. Her government is undertaking the most substantial overhaul of Japan’s intelligence collection and analysis capabilities since 1945, with the ultimate goal of creating something Japan has never had: its own version of the CIA by 2028.

Although its final name and structure remain unsettled, Tokyo clearly intends for the new agency to conduct clandestine human intelligence (HUMINT) operations overseas against top security threats such as China, North Korea, and Russia. Since the end of World War II, Japan has conspicuously lacked a dedicated foreign intelligence service capable of systematically recruiting and running human sources overseas, in part because of the legacy of intelligence abuses during the imperial era. Yet Japan is hardly an intelligence novice. It has sophisticated technical collection capabilities, particularly in signals and geospatial intelligence. But technology cannot answer every question. Tokyo increasingly recognizes that it needs people on the ground who can penetrate foreign governments and organizations in order to uncover intentions and plans that satellites or intercepted communications cannot.

When Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi meets with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly today, she will have a new plan at her disposal to highlight how Tokyo will do more for the U.S.-Japan security alliance. Her government is undertaking the most substantial overhaul of Japan’s intelligence collection and analysis capabilities since 1945, with the ultimate goal of creating something Japan has never had: its own version of the CIA by 2028.

Although its final name and structure remain unsettled, Tokyo clearly intends for the new agency to conduct clandestine human intelligence (HUMINT) operations overseas against top security threats such as China, North Korea, and Russia. Since the end of World War II, Japan has conspicuously lacked a dedicated foreign intelligence service capable of systematically recruiting and running human sources overseas, in part because of the legacy of intelligence abuses during the imperial era. Yet Japan is hardly an intelligence novice. It has sophisticated technical collection capabilities, particularly in signals and geospatial intelligence. But technology cannot answer every question. Tokyo increasingly recognizes that it needs people on the ground who can penetrate foreign governments and organizations in order to uncover intentions and plans that satellites or intercepted communications cannot.

Japan already has the foreign ministry-led Counter Terrorism Unit-Japan, created in 2015 to collect terrorism-related intelligence overseas through personnel stationed abroad. The government is reportedly considering reorganizing and expanding that apparatus, broadening its mission beyond terrorism to national security intelligence generally and dramatically strengthening its HUMINT role.

Japan is hardly starting from scratch. During the Cold War, Japanese listening stations became highly capable at monitoring Soviet and Chinese military communications. In 1983, for example, Tokyo’s Wakkanai listening station intercepted Soviet fighter communications during the pursuit and shootdown of Korean Air Lines Flight 007. Tokyo eventually released the recordings, providing critical evidence of what had happened but also revealing Japan’s capabilities. The episode illustrated both Japan’s considerable technical intelligence prowess and the enduring dilemma of protecting sources and methods.

Today, North Korea illustrates both the strengths and limitations of Japan’s existing intelligence capabilities. Pyongyang’s 1998 launch of a Taepodong missile over Japan prompted Tokyo to develop its own intelligence satellites, and Japan has since built formidable capabilities for monitoring North Korean missiles and military activity. Yet some of the most consequential North Korean secrets have proved far more difficult to uncover. For decades, Pyongyang denied abducting Japanese citizens until Kim Jong Il finally admitted the practice in 2002. Satellites can photograph missile facilities, and signals intelligence can intercept communications, but neither necessarily reveals what the regime is privately planning or where an abducted Japanese citizen is being held. Those are precisely the kinds of questions human sources can sometimes answer.

Washington should expect that Takaichi and her government will make good on their pledge to establish a Japanese CIA because Tokyo ha