Putin's Baltic warning has a disturbingly familiar ring [ANALYSIS] - TVP World

Putin's Baltic warning has a disturbingly familiar ring \[ANALYSIS]

go to tvp.pl

* Poland
* News
* Politics
* Business
* Focus
* Our shows
* Video
* More
+ Society
+ Science
+ Perspectives
+ Sports
+ Culture
+ History
+ Nature & Travel
+ Authors
+ TVP Info
* LIVE

- LIVE
Search on website

Start writing...

New default look Enjoy our new light color mode for better clarity. You can switch back to dark anytime - we'll remember your choice.

Politics

Putin is laying legal groundwork that should worry NATO's eastern flank \[ANALYSIS]

From eastern Poland in 1939 to Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has repeatedly invoked the protection of populations abroad to justify military intervention.



Edited by Sion Pennar

28.09.2026, 09:41

!Vladimir Putin's latest remarks on Russian speakers in the Baltics revive questions about Moscow's claims to protect populations living abroad. (Footage by Contributor/Getty Images)

*Vladimir Putin's latest remarks on Russian speakers in the Baltics revive questions about Moscow's claims to protect populations living abroad. (Footage by Contributor/Getty Images)*

Share

FACEBOOK X E-MAIL COPY LINK

Save

DOWNLOAD PDF PRINT

“Probably the last thing Lithuanian Russians want is for Russia to defend their interests,” Pavel Lavrinec, a scholar at Vilnius University, told investigative journalists in July. Russia itself, he argued, has created some of the greatest problems his community faces.

His warning acquired fresh significance on Friday when Vladimir Putin accused the Baltic states of mistreating Russian speakers and declared that Moscow had developed a “specific approach” to protecting them through “humanitarian” measures and “international law.”

With NATO very publicly preparing for possible Russian provocations along its eastern flank, Putin's remarks point towards another threat that could prove more consequential. Moscow is invoking a familiar argument it has repeatedly used to justify military intervention and territorial seizure. It claims the right to protect Russian citizens, Russian speakers and, more loosely, “compatriots” living beyond its borders.

Russia is already assembling a legal case against Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The Soviet invasion of eastern Poland in 1939, Russia's intervention in Georgia in 2008, its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 show why these preparations deserve attention.

**A legal case and a military pretext**

A joint investigation published in July by Re:Baltica, Estonia's Delfi and Lithuania's LRT revealed that Russia has spent years preparing a case against all three Baltic states before the International Court of Justice.

Since 2022, Moscow has sent repeated diplomatic notes alleging discrimination against Russian speakers. It has engaged lawyers, commissioned research into Russian communities and repeatedly invited Baltic governments to negotiate over their alleged violations of minority rights.

Russia has prepared a complaint under the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination, although it has yet to file proceedings.

The thing here is that Moscow could derive political benefits regardless of the outcome. An international court case would give its allegations a prominent platform, potentially keeping the Baltic governments under legal and diplomatic pressure for years.

Latvia's Constitution Protection Bureau has warned that “Russia can use legal arguments as pretext and justification for intensified aggressive activities or a potential confrontation against NATO.”

That gives Putin's latest remarks particular significance. Speaking to journalists on the sidelines of the International United Cultures Forum in St Petersburg on Friday, he said Moscow had “developed a specific approach to this issue” and would respond “in the humanitarian area and within the international law”.

!Across the river from Russia, Estonia's predominantly Russian-speaking city of Narva illustrates the sensitive geography of NATO's eastern border region. (Photo by Krisztian Elek/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

*Across the river from Russia, Estonia's predominantly Russian-speaking city of Narva illustrates the sensitive geography of NATO's eastern border region. (Photo by Krisztian Elek/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)*

**Moscow likes to get its legal paperwork in order**

Moscow has repeatedly sought legal justifications for military interventions that violated other countries' sovereignty.

The tradition stretches back to the Soviet invasion of eastern Poland on 17 September 1939. Moscow claimed the Polish state had ceased to exist and that the Red Army needed to protect Ukrainians and Belarusians. The invasion followed the Nazi-Soviet agreement to partition Poland.

Before the 2008 Georgia war, Russia distributed passports extensively in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. When war erupted, Moscow invoked its responsibility towards Russian citizens. The EU's subsequent investigation criticized the “passportization” policy for undermining Georgian sovereignty.

Then came Crimea, where in March 2014, as Russia annexed the peninsula, Putin promised to defend Russians and Russian-speaking people in Ukraine using “political, diplomatic and legal means”. The resemblance to Friday's statement is striking.

The legalistic preparations became particularly elaborate before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

On 21 February, Putin recognized the separatist entities in Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states. The following day, Moscow ratified mutual assistance treaties with them, while the Federation Council authorized Putin to deploy Russian forces abroad.

When he launched the invasion on 24 February, Putin cited those treaties, parliamentary authorization and Article 51 of the UN Charter, which concerns self-defense.

This legalism is embedded in Russia's institutions. Putin's 2020 constitutional reforms committed Russia to protecting its “compatriots” abroad, a deliberately broad category that extends beyond Russian citizens, ethnic Russians and Russian speakers to include people with historical, cultural or ancestral ties to Russia. It gives Moscow considerable scope to claim a responsibility for populations living beyond its borders.

Things went further in May this year when Putin signed legislation allowing Russian forces to be deployed abroad to protect Russian citizens facing certain forms of foreign prosecution.

!Russian troops in Georgia in August 2008, when Moscow invoked the protection of its citizens to justify military intervention abroad. (Photo by Uriel Sinai/Getty Images)

*Russian troops in Georgia in August 2008, when Moscow invoked the protection of its citizens to justify military intervention abroad. (Photo by Uriel Sinai/Getty Images)*

**Whom does Russia claim to protect?**

Latvia and Estonia have substantial Russian-speaking populations, largely a legacy of Soviet-era migration. Ethnic Russians account for around 23% of Latvia's population and 20.2% of Estonia's. In the Estonian border city of Narva, Russian is the dominant language.

Both countries are strengthening their national languages after decades of Soviet dominance. Estonia began phasing out Russian-language schooling in 2024, with the transition scheduled to run until 2030. Latvia has tightened language requirements in education and for certain Russian citizens seeking to retain residency.

Of course, these policies have critics beyond Moscow. Council of Europe experts have questioned restrictions on bilingual education and minority-language rights. But the European Court of Human Rights has upheld Latvia's education reforms, recognizing the need to “protect and strengthen the Latvian language” after more than 50 years of Soviet occupation. The court found that the reforms were proportionate and did not discriminate against Russian-speaking p