Strong data. Bad vibes. Voters are judging Trump's economy by prices.
Axios
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President Trump faces a stark contradiction: while economic data shows relative strength, voter sentiment has turned decisively negative, with 73% disapproving of his economic stewardship. As midterm elections loom, consumer confidence has hit a 12-year low, driven by persistent inflation that has outpaced wage growth.
Trump's dilemma: Good data, bad story
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2 hours ago - Politics & Policy
Trump's dilemma: Good data, bad story
* Ben Berkowitz
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!Illustration of President Trump sitting on the tallest of five bars of a bar chart.
*Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios*
President Trump's economic data keeps getting stronger. His economic polling keeps getting worse by the day.
**Why it matters:** The midterms are less than a month away, and the administration is circling the drain on voters' No. 1 issue.
* It may be too late to change that, but it's also not clear anyone has much of a plan to try.
**What they're saying:** "If I say 'oh, people are wrong, the economy is great,' then it looks like I'm insensitive. And if I then go into why the economy is great, then it looks like I'm insensitive," National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union."
* "It's true that the polls, which have gotten the president's success wrong every time, have been saying that people are looking a little bit depressed about the economy. But if you look at their actions, the actions speak way louder than words," Hassett added, citing spending and default data.
**The big picture:** There is ample evidence the economy is, statistically speaking, relatively strong.
* 💰 Economic growth is solid and accelerating.
* 💪 The labor market is relatively stable.
* 💵 The K-shaped economy is ending as lower-end wages rise.
* 🛍️ Public and private data say consumers are spending more than ever.
**Yes, but:** People *feel* lousy.
* ☹️ The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is at a 12-year low.
* 🐘 Republican sentiment in particular is eroding at its fastest rate since the Great Financial Crisis, per University of Michigan data.
* 🪫 38% of voters told the latest CBS News poll their personal finances are fairly or very bad — a reflection, perhaps, of the fact that inflation has outpaced wage growth for months now. (When respondents were asked what they think about when they rate the economy, 91% said "prices.")
* 👎 73% disapprove of President Trump's handling of the economy, per the latest AP-NORC survey, the lowest rating he — or President Biden — ever had. (69% say Trump's handling of cost-of-living issues has been worse than they expected in his second term.)
**Friction point:** When voters go to the polls, they don't bring the latest release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis with them.
* They bring their feelings, and those are very bad.
* Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told "The Axios Show" the administration wasn't going to repeat the Biden-era mistake of telling people how to feel.
* But Trump himself said last week that Republicans weren't doing a good enough job of messaging.
**The intrigue:** So far, Trump's strategy seems to be the rich-uncle theory, which doesn't appear to be paying off with voters.
* He continues to promise $5,000 checks for every adult citizen if Republicans win the midterms — a $1.3 trillion bombshell that most people don't believe he'll ever pay.
* On Saturday, he promised seniors $2 billion in Medicare rebates, a big number that works out to about two weeks' worth of premium payments.
**Between the lines:** Some of the tension comes from the nature of the economic boom, an AI-fueled bonanza that nonetheless appears to be leaving many ordinary Americans behind.
* It's not a K-shaped economy, says Krishna Guha, head of economics at Evercore ISI, but a "gator economy" — as in an alligator's mouth, where the bottom stays flat and the top is pointing to the sky poised to chomp.
**The bottom line:** There's good reason to think the economy's not that bad.
* There's even better reason to think voters don't care.
*Emily Peck contributed reporting.*
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2 hours ago - Politics & Policy
Trump's dilemma: Good data, bad story
* Ben Berkowitz
*
*
*
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see more of our stories on Google.
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!Illustration of President Trump sitting on the tallest of five bars of a bar chart.
*Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios*
President Trump's economic data keeps getting stronger. His economic polling keeps getting worse by the day.
**Why it matters:** The midterms are less than a month away, and the administration is circling the drain on voters' No. 1 issue.
* It may be too late to change that, but it's also not clear anyone has much of a plan to try.
**What they're saying:** "If I say 'oh, people are wrong, the economy is great,' then it looks like I'm insensitive. And if I then go into why the economy is great, then it looks like I'm insensitive," National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union."
* "It's true that the polls, which have gotten the president's success wrong every time, have been saying that people are looking a little bit depressed about the economy. But if you look at their actions, the actions speak way louder than words," Hassett added, citing spending and default data.
**The big picture:** There is ample evidence the economy is, statistically speaking, relatively strong.
* 💰 Economic growth is solid and accelerating.
* 💪 The labor market is relatively stable.
* 💵 The K-shaped economy is ending as lower-end wages rise.
* 🛍️ Public and private data say consumers are spending more than ever.
**Yes, but:** People *feel* lousy.
* ☹️ The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is at a 12-year low.
* 🐘 Republican sentiment in particular is eroding at its fastest rate since the Great Financial Crisis, per University of Michigan data.
* 🪫 38% of voters told the latest CBS News poll their personal finances are fairly or very bad — a reflection, perhaps, of the fact that inflation has outpaced wage growth for months now. (When respondents were asked what they think about when they rate the economy, 91% said "prices.")
* 👎 73% disapprove of President Trump's handling of the economy, per the latest AP-NORC survey, the lowest rating he — or President Biden — ever had. (69% say Trump's handling of cost-of-living issues has been worse than they expected in his second term.)
**Friction point:** When voters go to the polls, they don't bring the latest release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis with them.
* They bring their feelings, and those are very bad.
* Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told "The Axios Show" the administration wasn't going to repeat the Biden-era mistake of telling people how to feel.
* But Trump himself said last week that Republicans weren't doing a good enough job of messaging.
**The intrigue:** So far, Trump's strategy seems to be the rich-uncle theory, which doesn't appear to be paying off with voters.
* He continues to promise $5,000 checks for every adult citizen if Republicans win the midterms — a $1.3 trillion bombshell that most people don't believe he'll ever pay.
* On Saturday, he promised seniors $2 billion in Medicare rebates, a big number that works out to about two weeks' worth of premium payments.
**Between the lines:** Some of the tension comes from the nature of the economic boom, an AI-fueled bonanza that nonetheless appears to be leaving many ordinary Americans behind.
* It's not a K-shaped economy, says Krishna Guha, head of economics at Evercore ISI, but a "gator economy" — as in an alligator's mouth, where the bottom stays flat and the top is pointing to the sky poised to chomp.
**The bottom line:** There's good reason to think the economy's not that bad.
* There's even better reason to think voters don't care.
*Emily Peck contributed reporting.*
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Add Axios on Google
What to read next
*
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Smarter, faster on what matters.
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* Advertise with us
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* Contact us
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Axios Media Inc., 2026
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