Thailand’s Demographic Crisis Arrives Early

Thailand’s Demographic Crisis Arrives Early – Foreign Policy

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Analysis: Thailand’s Demographic Crisis Arrives Early

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Analysis

Thailand’s Demographic Crisis Arrives Early

The country faces a plummeting birth rate sooner than some of its global south peers.

By **Andrew Nachemson**, a journalist covering politics, human rights, and China’s influence in Southeast Asia.

!Four swaddled newborns rest side-by-side in separate metal hospital basinets. Each baby wears a knit beanie—two in shades of pink, one brown, and one green—and is wrapped tightly in a light blue patterned blanket.

*Four swaddled newborns rest side-by-side in separate metal hospital basinets. Each baby wears a knit beanie—two in shades of pink, one brown, and one green—and is wrapped tightly in a light blue patterned blanket.*

Newborn babies sleep at Rajavithi Hospital in Bangkok on Feb. 10, 2017. Sakchai Lalit/AP

*

September 30, 2026, 6:00 AM

At the start of the year, Thailand’s Department of Health held a press conference under the ominous title, “Every Birth Matters… When the Silent Countdown Begins.” Officials said that in 2025, deaths in the country had exceeded births by nearly 140,000, and that if current trends held, the population could halve in the next 50 years. A director-general from the department warned that the decline could affect Thailand’s economy, tax base, and even government stability.

In a statement in July, the National Savings Fund, which handles public pensions, echoed this alarm. It described declining births as a “warning sign,” as a contracting labor force puts pressure on the welfare system and forces “everyone to rely more on themselves.” Other officials have said that working-aged people will be forced to shoulder a greater burden to support an elderly population, which could lead to an increase in the retirement age.

At the start of the year, Thailand’s Department of Health held a press conference under the ominous title, “Every Birth Matters… When the Silent Countdown Begins.” Officials said that in 2025, deaths in the country had exceeded births by nearly 140,000, and that if current trends held, the population could halve in the next 50 years. A director-general from the department warned that the decline could affect Thailand’s economy, tax base, and even government stability.

In a statement in July, the National Savings Fund, which handles public pensions, echoed this alarm. It described declining births as a “warning sign,” as a contracting labor force puts pressure on the welfare system and forces “everyone to rely more on themselves.” Other officials have said that working-aged people will be forced to shoulder a greater burden to support an elderly population, which could lead to an increase in the retirement age.

Thailand’s sharply declining birth rate follows a pattern often attributed to rising costs of living and women attaining higher levels of education. However, the demographic crisis has arrived in upper-middle-income Thailand early compared to elsewhere in the global south. The country’s fertility rate of 1.2 births per woman places it near Italy, Singapore, Spain, and South Korea—economies with four to 11 times Thailand’s per capita GDP.

South Korea’s fertility rate first dropped below 2.1 births per woman—generally seen as replacement level—in 1984, as its economy was growing rapidly. Thailand, by comparison, is in a period of prolonged economic stagnation. Birth rates are declining across Southeast Asia, but those of Thailand and Singapore are the lowest in the region. Of the 11 countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, six have dipped below 2.1 births per woman.

A 2024 study comparing provinces in Thailand and countries across Southeast Asia reported that technocratic Singapore has managed to “slow the declining birth rate, but it has not been able to increase it back to the level of previous years … despite Singapore having the highest government effectiveness” in the region.

Singapore has offered tax relief, childcare and preschool subsidies, priority access to public housing for married couples, and expanded maternity and paternity leave. Though its fertility rate has occasionally risen, it tends to fall back down and remains low. Thailand, meanwhile, “has a relatively low level of governance in terms of political stability, corruption control and accountability in government,” the study said, raising questions about its ability to stem the decline through similar policies.

At the February press conference, Thai health ministry officials said that they are seeking to expand access to fertility treatment and reduce the financial burden of raising children. This includes offering some childcare support to people below a certain income level as well as establishing fertility clinics in all public hospitals, intrauterine insemination clinics in all provinces, and in vitro fertilization at regional hubs.

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Thailand may be facing a declining birth rate sooner than other countries at its income level due to greater gender equality and limited stigma against contraception. In 2021, Thailand formally legalized abortion in the first 20 weeks of pregnancy, but it was broadly accessible before then, and the national government has long encouraged the use of contraception.

In the 1990s, after concerns emerged that a rising population would lead to high unemployment, Thailand was celebrated by the *Christian Science Monitor* as “one of the world’s leading success stories” in family planning, credited to cooperation between the government and civil society, efforts t