Brazil election: Early count puts Bolsonaro ahead of Lula

With votes being counted in Brazil following the presidential election on Sunday, populist Senator Flavio Bolsonaro was leading the race ahead of leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro seeks to continue the right-wing populist movement started by his father, Jair Bolsonaro, while Lula is seeking his fourth non-consecutive term.

With more than 99% of the ballots processed, Flavio Bolsonaro has received 47.2% of the vote. Lula has 45%, according to the electoral court.

Since neither candidate received enough votes to win outright on Sunday, the court announced that Bolsonaro and Lula will face each other in a runoff.

Bolsonaro is monitoring the vote count in Brasilia, the country's capital, while Lula is following it from Sao Paulo.

Because Brazil uses electronic voting machines, final results are expected to be available within several hours of the polls closing.

You can watch our livestream on the Brazil election results below.

Right gains momentum in Brazil

Fabio de Sa e Silva, a professor of Brazilian studies at the University of Oklahoma, told DW that the right was currently on the rise in Brazil, making it difficult for Lula to change the course of the election.

"He still has a chance, based on the numbers, but the momentum is with the right," said de Sa e Silva.

"The big news tomorrow will be not that we have a runoff... but it is a takeover that happened in Congress by the far-right," the researcher said.

He added that it will be very hard for Lula to govern with Brazil's new Congress, even if he eventually secures another term.

Lula vows to 'defeat the far right'

Lula and Bolsonaro wrapped up their campaigns on Saturday in Brazil's economic powerhouse state of Sao Paulo.

The 80-year-old Lula capped off his campaign with a tour through the city of Sao Paulo, vowing to "defeat the far right."

Organizers said some 150,000 of Lula's supporters turned up for the rally in Brazil's largest city.

Lula has campaigned on continuing his left-leaning Workers' Party platform, comprising welfare programs, state-funded development and income redistribution.

"The people will have to choose between strengthening the democratic regime and barbarism ... between progress and backwardness," he said as he cast his ballot on Sunday.

Bolsonaro calls for 'change'

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, has served as the Liberal Party's senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019. On Saturday, he led a motorcycle parade through Sao Paulo's countryside cities of Santa Barbara d'Oeste and Americana.

He also held up a portrait of his father, while the crowd shouted "mito" — a Portuguese word for "legend" that Jair Bolsonaro's supporters use to refer to him.

The right-wing Bolsonaro has campaigned on hardline security policies and tax cuts, emphasizing high cost of living under Lula, who he has slammed as "incompetent."

"Brazil needs change," the son of the former president said as he cast his vote. "Brazil cannot bear any more suffering, such as high taxes, so many women killed."

Brazil's 2022 election rematch

The elder Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year sentence in prison for attempting a coup to overturn his loss to Lula in the 2022 presidential election. Flavio Bolsonaro has vowed to pardon his father if elected.

Lula's team has cast the Bolsonaro movement as a threat to Brazil's sovereignty, pointing to Flavio and Jair's ties with US President Donald Trump, who last year slapped a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports in response to Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial. The US president called the case a "witch hunt."

The younger Bolsonaro has said in interviews he is "more moderate" than his father, who he has nevertheless said will remain "my compass, my point of reference."

Policies where both Bolsonaros are similar include relaxed gun control laws and skepticism of human-caused climate change.

Trump has not endorsed the senator, but has said he is watching the election "very closely."

What happens next?

Brazil finds itself politically divided, and campaigning has been bitter, with online operations from both sides seizing on every gaffe, accusation and rumor, quickly producing slick videos or AI-generated images for social media.

In September, it was revealed Bolsonaro is under investigation for alleged corruption, money laundering and tax evasion tied to the financing of a biopic about his father. He has denied any misconduct.

The latest polling for the first round of voting shows Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%, according to the Brazilian data intelligence and public opinion research firm Quaest cited by Reuters news agency.

In the case of a run-off, the Quaest poll shows Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 44%.

In 2022, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by only 1.8 percentage points.

Along with voting for president, Brazil's 160 million registered voters are also choosing other lawmakers, governors, and some senators.

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Edited by: Sean Sinico