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"Nauseously optimistic": Anxious House Democrats brace for midterm Election Day
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House Democrats expect a decisive victory in Tuesday's midterm elections, but memories of past Election Day disappointments have kept their optimism guarded and laced with anxiety. Lawmakers fear a major polling error or a last-minute setback, while heavy Republican spending and what they describe as election interference by the Trump administration add to their concerns.
"Nauseously optimistic": House Democrats brace for Election Day
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12 hours ago - Politics & Policy
"Nauseously optimistic": House Dems brace for Election Day
* Andrew Solender
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*Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios*
Democrats will happily tell you how good they feel about retaking the House on Tuesday — just as soon as they stop hyperventilating into a paper bag.
**Why it matters:** They've been burned too many times on Election Day to feel anything more than "nauseously optimistic," as one House Democrat put it to Axios.
* The polls point to a decisive Democratic victory on Nov. 3, yet fears of a massive polling error or some other eleventh-hour disaster are giving party members sleepless nights.
* "One woman at a rally in New Jersey told me last week that she was 'nauseously optimistic,'" Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) told Axios. "That may capture a lot of people's last-minute jitters."
* A House Democrat who has spoken to leadership told Axios: "They feel optimistic. You know, guarded. Guarded optimism. Where we're going to end up, you never know."
**State of play:** Democrats are targeting dozens of Republican-held seats they think could flip, some of which President Trump carried by 10, 15, even 20 percentage points in 2024.
* Democrats' House Majority PAC, for instance, went on the air Wednesday in retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's (R-N.Y.) district, which Trump won by 21 points.
* They also began spending against Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.), who won his last reelection with 60% of the vote.
**HMP is so bullish** it has moved money *out* of the races to replace retiring Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) and Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), which they believe Democrats are on track to win handily.
* "I am cautiously optimistic we win between 20-25 seats," Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) told Axios.
* Democrats' landslide scenario puts them closer to 40 or 50 pickups, which would be a historic night for the party.
**Yes, but:** Mid-decade redistricting in Republican-controlled Southern states is all but certain to cut into those gains.
* The GOP is expected to easily flip redrawn seats in Tennessee and Louisiana where the incumbent Democrats chose to retire rather than face uphill reelection battles.
* Democratic leadership is also nervous about several Democrats who opted to run in their new seats, including Reps. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), Darren Soto (D-Fla.) and Shomari Figures (D-Ala.), according to three lawmakers familiar with their thinking.
**What they're saying:** All of the nearly 20 House Democrats who spoke to Axios on Wednesday expressed some degree of confidence about the election.
* "I've been to 26 states this campaign, and I'd say Democrats have been riding a wave of tremendous optimism and activism over the last several months," said Raskin.
* Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) told Axios she is feeling "legitimately good" and that "the cautious optimism is there only because of … history."
* "The optimism is real and I think for good reason," said Rep. Johnny Olszewski (D-Md.).
**But virtually** **everyone** also offered reasons for keeping their expectations tempered. "Dems have been burnt by good polling before," Rep. Dave Min (D-Calif.) told Axios.
* Min also said Democrats are "hyper-aware of the election tampering that Trump and his goons are engaging in right now," something several other lawmakers echoed.
* "We're bracing for all manner of drama before, during and after the election," said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.).
**The other side:** "The Democrats are trying to deflect from the revelation of their secret, corrupt plan to stack Alaska's ballot," said White House spokesperson Lauren Bis, referring to a New York Times report about the drafting of spoiler Senate candidate Dan J. Sullivan.
* The Justice Department has sued to delay certification of Alaska's Senate election if Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan narrowly loses.
* "If these are the types of tactics Democrats need to use to win elections, maybe they should reexamine their radical policies," Bis said.
**Other Democrats worry** that an eleventh-hour spending spree by Republican donors and super PACs will give the GOP a critical boost in the final days of the campaign.
* "Elon Musk's $366 million infusion to Republican coffers ... has definitely filtered down into a lot of the close House and Senate campaigns and paid for a wall of propaganda," said Raskin.
* Another House Democrat told Axios that there is "some anxiety about the super PAC money from Rs," which is "mostly coming" from candidates in battleground districts.
**Zoom in:** Lawmakers also pointed to race-specific dynamics that have helped certain Republicans outrun national headwinds.
* The battle between Democrat Cait Conley and Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) is "razor-thin close" despite Kamala Harris carrying the district in 2024, a House Democrat from New York told Axios.
* A House Democrat from Michigan told Axios that Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed's weakness atop the ticket is "hurting" Democratic campaigns in the state's battleground House districts.
* A House Democrat from Texas told Axios the party will likely fall short in several winnable seats there because of either poor recruitment or insufficient investment from the national party.
**The bottom line:** "There are two ways to run — scared and unopposed," said Scholten.
* "We're running in tough elections all across the country, and we're going to run hard through the tape in every single one."
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12 hours ago - Politics & Policy
"Nauseously optimistic": House Dems brace for Election Day
* Andrew Solender
*
*
*
Add Axios on Google
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Add Axios on Google
!Illustration of a donkey hoof smashing a party horn.
*Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios*
Democrats will happily tell you how good they feel about retaking the House on Tuesday — just as soon as they stop hyperventilating into a paper bag.
**Why it matters:** They've been burned too many times on Election Day to feel anything more than "nauseously optimistic," as one House Democrat put it to Axios.
* The polls point to a decisive Democratic victory on Nov. 3, yet fears of a massive polling error or some other eleventh-hour disaster are giving party members sleepless nights.
* "One woman at a rally in New Jersey told me last week that she was 'nauseously optimistic,'" Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) told Axios. "That may capture a lot of people's last-minute jitters."
* A House Democrat who has spoken to leadership told Axios: "They feel optimistic. You know, guarded. Guarded optimism. Where we're going to end up, you never know."
**State of play:** Democrats are targeting dozens of Republican-held seats they think could flip, some of which President Trump carried by 10, 15, even 20 percentage points in 2024.
* Democrats' House Majority PAC, for instance, went on the air Wednesday in retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's (R-N.Y.) district, which Trump won by 21 points.
* They also began spending against Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.), who won his last reelection with 60% of the vote.
**HMP is so bullish** it has moved money *out* of the races to replace retiring Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) and Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), which they believe Democrats are on track to win handily.
* "I am cautiously optimistic we win between 20-25 seats," Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) told Axios.
* Democrats' landslide scenario puts them closer to 40 or 50 pickups, which would be a historic night for the party.
**Yes, but:** Mid-decade redistricting in Republican-controlled Southern states is all but certain to cut into those gains.
* The GOP is expected to easily flip redrawn seats in Tennessee and Louisiana where the incumbent Democrats chose to retire rather than face uphill reelection battles.
* Democratic leadership is also nervous about several Democrats who opted to run in their new seats, including Reps. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), Darren Soto (D-Fla.) and Shomari Figures (D-Ala.), according to three lawmakers familiar with their thinking.
**What they're saying:** All of the nearly 20 House Democrats who spoke to Axios on Wednesday expressed some degree of confidence about the election.
* "I've been to 26 states this campaign, and I'd say Democrats have been riding a wave of tremendous optimism and activism over the last several months," said Raskin.
* Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) told Axios she is feeling "legitimately good" and that "the cautious optimism is there only because of … history."
* "The optimism is real and I think for good reason," said Rep. Johnny Olszewski (D-Md.).
**But virtually** **everyone** also offered reasons for keeping their expectations tempered. "Dems have been burnt by good polling before," Rep. Dave Min (D-Calif.) told Axios.
* Min also said Democrats are "hyper-aware of the election tampering that Trump and his goons are engaging in right now," something several other lawmakers echoed.
* "We're bracing for all manner of drama before, during and after the election," said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.).
**The other side:** "The Democrats are trying to deflect from the revelation of their secret, corrupt plan to stack Alaska's ballot," said White House spokesperson Lauren Bis, referring to a New York Times report about the drafting of spoiler Senate candidate Dan J. Sullivan.
* The Justice Department has sued to delay certification of Alaska's Senate election if Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan narrowly loses.
* "If these are the types of tactics Democrats need to use to win elections, maybe they should reexamine their radical policies," Bis said.
**Other Democrats worry** that an eleventh-hour spending spree by Republican donors and super PACs will give the GOP a critical boost in the final days of the campaign.
* "Elon Musk's $366 million infusion to Republican coffers ... has definitely filtered down into a lot of the close House and Senate campaigns and paid for a wall of propaganda," said Raskin.
* Another House Democrat told Axios that there is "some anxiety about the super PAC money from Rs," which is "mostly coming" from candidates in battleground districts.
**Zoom in:** Lawmakers also pointed to race-specific dynamics that have helped certain Republicans outrun national headwinds.
* The battle between Democrat Cait Conley and Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) is "razor-thin close" despite Kamala Harris carrying the district in 2024, a House Democrat from New York told Axios.
* A House Democrat from Michigan told Axios that Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed's weakness atop the ticket is "hurting" Democratic campaigns in the state's battleground House districts.
* A House Democrat from Texas told Axios the party will likely fall short in several winnable seats there because of either poor recruitment or insufficient investment from the national party.
**The bottom line:** "There are two ways to run — scared and unopposed," said Scholten.
* "We're running in tough elections all across the country, and we're going to run hard through the tape in every single one."
*
*
*
Add Axios on Google
What to read next
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Smarter, faster on what matters.
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* Advertise with us
* Careers
* Contact us
* Newsletters
* Axios Live
* Axios HQ
* Privacy policy
* Terms of use
*
Axios Homepage
Axios Media Inc., 2026
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Source: Axios
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