Is Europe Ready for a New Era of Russian Dirty Tricks?

After Failing in Ukraine, Putin Is Now Targeting Europe

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Analysis:

Is Europe Ready for a New Era of Russian Dirty Tricks?

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Analysis

Is Europe Ready for a New Era of Russian Dirty Tricks?

After the Kremlin’s failure in Ukraine, Putin’s new plan aims westward.

!A pencil drawn headshot of Christian Caryl wearing glasses a jacket and button-up shirt.

*A pencil drawn headshot of Christian Caryl wearing glasses a jacket and button-up shirt.*

*Christian Caryl*

By **Christian Caryl**, a columnist at *Foreign Policy* and a former Moscow bureau chief for *Newsweek* and *U.S. News & World Report*.

!Anti-tank hedgehogs are stacked near the border with Russia in Karsava, Latvia, on Aug. 16, 2024.

*Anti-tank hedgehogs are stacked near the border with Russia in Karsava, Latvia, on Aug. 16, 2024.*

Anti-tank hedgehogs are stacked near the border with Russia in Karsava, Latvia, on Aug. 16, 2024. GINTS IVUSKANS/AFP via Getty Images

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August 26, 2026, 5:49 AM

Russia’s War in Ukraine

Understanding the conflict four years on.

More on this topic

Europeans are rattled. A bomb-laden drone attacked a Ukrainian cargo plane in the eastern German city of Leipzig, but it failed to go off. In another incident, German authorities revealed that they had thwarted an assassination plot targeting the CEO of one of the country’s leading drone-manufacturing companies. Outside Rome, a titanic blast destroyed an ammunition factory whose products are used by Ukrainian forces—just a few days after another explosion hit a plant in Bulgaria whose owner was previously reported to have been targeted by Russian security services. And a Spanish fighter jet on a NATO air-policing mission shot down a drone that crossed into Romanian airspace. A NATO spokesperson said that the drone was probably of Russian origin.

And that was just the first half of August.

Europeans are rattled. A bomb-laden drone attacked a Ukrainian cargo plane in the eastern German city of Leipzig, but it failed to go off. In another incident, German authorities revealed that they had thwarted an assassination plot targeting the CEO of one of the country’s leading drone-manufacturing companies. Outside Rome, a titanic blast destroyed an ammunition factory whose products are used by Ukrainian forces—just a few days after another explosion hit a plant in Bulgaria whose owner was previously reported to have been targeted by Russian security services. And a Spanish fighter jet on a NATO air-policing mission shot down a drone that crossed into Romanian airspace. A NATO spokesperson said that the drone was probably of Russian origin.

And that was just the first half of August.

None of this is completely unprecedented. For many months now, Europeans have been assailed by a series of hostile actions, some clearly traced back to Russia, that have aimed to undermine Europe’s efforts to support Ukraine. Russia has cut undersea cables, jammed GPS signals, and staged sabotage using disaffected locals recruited through the internet. Some observers have taken to describing this campaign as gray-zone warfare, referring to aggressive measures that fall below the threshold of outright war.

Right now, though, the “gray-zone” modifier looks increasingly obsolete—especially given the growing brazenness of Russian threats accompanying its actions. On Aug. 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged unspecified retaliation against any countries daring to interfere with Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of oil tankers—a clear reference to a recent decision by the European Union that would allow the confiscation of Russian oil from sanctioned vessels. In an interview two days later, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov extended the threat to include any countries that dare to support Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invaders. “We will adopt much harsher methods to destroy everything that enables the West to fuel Kyiv’s war machine,” he declared. “We are already doing this, and \[the Europeans] are already moaning.”

Yet Europe continues to dither. German officials seem to be awaiting proof that Russia was behind the Leipzig attack before responding—a good example of why Moscow always goes to great lengths to make its involvement deniable. But if Europeans think that observing the diplomatic niceties will save them, then they have another thing coming.

Putin and his minions have every reason to up the ante. For well over four years now, the men in the Kremlin have tried to defeat the Ukrainians through direct combat. Far from succeeding, they’ve now had to look on as Kyiv’s drones and missiles pound oil refineries and military targets deep inside Russia. Putin’s next-best option—getting his friend U.S. President Donald Trump to strong-arm Ukraine into accepting Russian peace terms through U.S.-led negotiations—has also petered out. That leaves plan C: an intensified effort to undercut European support for Ukraine, whether through subversion, intimidation, or influence operations that are aimed at elevating pro-Moscow parties and politicians. Putin’s most effective minion, former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, fulfilled this function for years. Now, the Russian president is betting that his allies in Germany or France may soon be able to do even more.

For Putin, targeting Europe is the most obvious choice on a limited escalation menu. There’s little reason to believe that Russia isn’t already throwing everything it has at Ukraine short of nuclear weapons—and there is ample reason to conclude that the Kremlin w