Bulgaria: Concerns about security in the Black Sea dominate presidential election campaign

Six months after Bulgaria's parliamentary election, the country is gearing up to choose its next president.

Although the role of president in Bulgaria is largely ceremonial, the election on October 25 — with a potential runoff on November 1 — will serve as a test for the government of former President Rumen Radev, whose party won a landslide victory in April, securing an unprecedented majority — the first in Bulgaria in almost three decades.

Although there are 27 candidates on the ballot, the race has narrowed to a duel between the incumbent president, Iliana Yotova, who served two terms as Radev's vice president and is backed by the prime minister, and former caretaker Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov, who is supported by opposition parties.

The role of the president

According to the Bulgarian Constitution, the Bulgarian president embodies national unity. He or she represents the country at international level (with a few exceptions), is the commander-in-chief of its armed forces, appoints members of the Supreme Judicial Council and various regulatory bodies, including caretaker governments, and has the power to veto legislation.

Hristo Panchugov, a political scientist at the New Bulgarian University in Sofia, argued that although the president's powers are formally limited, the office is particularly significant in the current context.

"For the first time in Bulgaria's modern democratic history, we have an absolutely uncontested majority that is not held together by any coalition, but rather by a single political party that faces an opposition that is completely falling apart," he told DW.

Panchugov went on to say that it would have been better if the campaign had focused more on "whether the president could serve as a counterbalance."

Opposition candidate Andrey Gyurov reiterated this point in an interview with DW: "We are seeing a concentration of power that always bears the marks of a slide toward autocracy... A president should know how to say no."

Iliana Yotova declined DW's request for an interview.

The impact of the war in Ukraine

Initially, the presidential race was characterized by small rallies, a lack of televised debates and numerous personal attacks on the two leading candidates.

In recent weeks, however, following drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea, the two frontrunners' diverging positions on support for Ukraine have come to the fore.

Bulgaria's government initially declined invitations to join the Coalition of the Willing and NATO's anti-drone initiative but changed its position on the latter after the recent drone attacks.

Yotova has advocated for the establishment of a "Coalition of Peace," in which she believes Bulgaria would have a stronger diplomatic voice in the process to endRussia's war in Ukraine.

"There are many warmongers in our country; I am not one of them," she said at a campaign rally this month. "As long as I am president — and if you place your trust in me — not a single Bulgarian soldier will go to Ukraine."

Yotova has sought to reassure voters that no Bulgarian troops will be sent to Ukraine, even though this has not featured in public debate, and has been ruled out by a 2025 parliamentary declaration that reaffirmed that the Bulgarian Armed Forces would not participate in hostilities there.

Nevertheless, the recent drone attacks on commercial ships in the Black Sea have put new pressure on both the president and Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria party.

The effect of the Black Sea drone strikes

"The drone strikes in the Black Sea brought the otherwise abstract geopolitical situation right into the daily lives of every Bulgarian," Boriana Dimitrova, managing partner of the Alpha Research market and social research agency, told DW.

Many in Europe, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have laid the blame for the attacks squarely at Russia's door. The fact that Bulgaria's leaders did not clearly attribute blame for the attacks fueled frustration across the country.

After the first drone attack, President Yotova convened the country's Consultative Council on National Security. Its subsequent declaration did not name the source of the threat in the Black Sea.

A week later, after the second attack, Prime Minister Radev said, "We lack solid, clear evidence to level accusations against any specific party; however logic suggests the outcome works to the advantage of Russia." He then summoned the Russian ambassador for talks.

Opposition to an 'ambiguous' foreign policy stance

The stance of the government and president is having an impact on the race.

"We're seeing a slight decline in support for Iliana Yotova, which is not threatening her first-place position by any means in the first round, but there has been a decline given the ambiguity of some of the positions she has taken," said Boriana Dimitrova.

As the issue of security entered the public debate, some Bulgarians took to the streets in Sofia to protest against what they saw as the government's ambiguous foreign policy stance on this matter.

"I think the drone attacks in the Black Sea and the utterly spineless stance of the president, the prime minister, and everyone acting in unison were the last straw, and I believe that, on the eve of the presidential election, this should serve as a catalyst," Vlada Tzenova, one of the protesters, told DW.

All this is reflected in the preliminary results of the latest opinion poll conducted by Alpha Research. While expected voter turnout is up, the gap between the two frontrunners has narrowed: Yotova is still ahead, leading Gyurov by about 12 percentage points in the first round, but the margin is smaller than it was.

Who could be the kingmaker?

Nevertheless, these recent dynamics do not necessarily mean a shift in the balance of power.

Panchugov said that Gyurov's campaign has been hampered by his hesitancy to declare his candidacy, a lack of "passion" in his campaign, and the fact that he made few comments on current affairs before he joined the race.

Moreover, supporters of the candidate of the pro-Russian nationalist Vazrazhdane (Revival) party, which ranked third in the Alpha Research poll, would be most likely to support Yotova in a second round.

What could decide the outcome of the election is the fact that both GERB and DPS, two of the established parties that attracted the support of more than 660,000 voters in April, did not field a presidential candidate.

According to Alpha Research, half of GERB's supporters do not intend to vote in the first round. The party dominated Bulgaria's political landscape for 17 years but lost power in December following mass anti-corruption protests backed by opposition parties supporting Andrey Gyurov.

Most of the remaining GERB supporters are expected to back Gyurov, as the party has historically opposed Iliana Yotova's political home, the Bulgarian Socialist Party.

At the same time, both Gyurov's campaign and nationalist parties are seeing increased mobilization, with the latter drawing support from voters disappointed by the government's cautious response to the drone attacks.

"We can view these elections as the first test of confidence in the party that recently won the election," Boriana Dimitrova said. "In peaceful times, the center attracts the most attention; in turbulent times, those candidates who take a clearer stance — regardless of the direction — gain greater visibility."

Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan