Reliably red Ohio suddenly a red-hot mess for GOP
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Ohio, once a reliable Republican stronghold that propelled JD Vance to national prominence, has become a major headache for the GOP ahead of the midterm elections. Republicans are battling multiple crises from domestic abuse allegations to working-class voter rebellion across the state.
Reliably red Ohio suddenly a red-hot mess for GOP
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5 hours ago - Politics & Policy
Reliably red Ohio suddenly a red-hot mess for GOP
* Alex Isenstadt
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!Illustration of the Ohio state flag with an angry emoji face as the red circle.
*Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images*
Ohio, the red state that helped fuel President Trump's political comeback — and launched his presumed heir, JD Vance, onto the national stage — has become one of the GOP's biggest headaches for the midterms.
**Why it matters:** Republicans are struggling up and down the ballot in the Rust Belt state, which transformed from a perennial battleground into a Republican stronghold under Trump.
* Ohio's GOP is scrambling under the weight of domestic abuse allegations, sluggish campaigns and a working-class rebellion.
**Zoom in:** The most immediate concern is the race in northeastern Ohio's normally red 7th House District, where Rep. Max Miller faces allegations that he abused his ex-wife and daughter, which Miller has denied.
* Trump, who previously called the allegations a family matter, phoned Miller on Monday and expressed worries about his candidacy, three sources briefed on the call told Axios.
* "It's not looking good for you," the president told Miller, the sources said. "I'm hearing from people you're not going to win."
* Miller told Trump he was staying in the race.
**For Ohio Republicans,** Miller's situation has muddied their prospects in a November election that will be a key test of whether Trump's populist coalition can withstand the growing discontent with his war in Iran and the economy.
* Republicans now say they'll spend tens of millions of dollars in Ohio races they once were heavily favored to win this fall.
* It's a striking turn of events: Two years ago, Trump won Ohio by 11 points — the largest margin in Ohiofor any winning presidential candidate in four decades.
* "Ohio is ground zeroof the environment this cycle," a national Republican strategist tells Axios. "Take a GOP voter depression, mix it with the war in Iran, and now sprinkle with some Max Miller abuse \[allegations], and you've got the recipe for a very dicey outcome in November."
**The races giving Republicans the most heartburn:**
**1\. Miller's debacle**
**The ex-wife he's accused of abusing** is Emily Moreno, the daughter of Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno.
* Strategists from both parties agree the allegations have helped Democrat Brian Poindexter run neck-and-neck with Miller in the conservative House district.
* Republicans worry that Democrats will run ads tying Miller to other Ohio candidates, who are beginning to face uncomfortable questions about whether they support Miller.
**One leading Republican** definitely does not: Moreno, who over the weekend said his former son-in-law "should not serve" in Congress and called on him to resign.
* Other Ohio Republicans are holding out hope that Miller quits and is replaced on the ballot by state Sen. Jane Timken — a move that would have to happen by Wednesday.
* But as he told Trump on Monday, Miller has vowed to stay in the race.
**2\. The Senate race**
**Republicans say they've viewed** private polling showing GOP Sen. Jon Husted in a dead heat against former Sen. Sherrod Brown.
* Brown, a populist-minded Democrat who served three terms before losing his seat to Moreno in 2024, has outraised Husted by nearly 3 to 1.
* Republicans concede Brown has found a potent line of attack against Husted by casting him as "the face of data centers in Ohio."
* Some Republicans worry that Husted has run a lackluster campaign and hasn't distinguished himself since being appointed to succeed Vance last year.
**But a senior Republican** told Axios that Husted has taken steps to get on track, including by hiring veteran strategist Matt Mason to help oversee his campaign.
* Others noted that Moreno was trailing Brown at this point two years ago, but ended up winning by 4 points.
**3\. The governor's race**
**Polls are showing** former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in a neck-and-neck race against Democrat Amy Acton.
* Some Republicans say Ramaswamy, an Ivy League-educated former biotech investor, has struggled to win over the state's blue-collar voters.
* He's also faced some backlash from conservatives, particularly over his support for developing data centers for AI. He was heckled at a libertarian conference last week.
**Still, Republicans say Ramaswamy** appears to be in better shape than Miller or Husted, and that he's the most likely of the three to win in November.
**What we're watching:** Some Republicans fear the party's struggles in Ohio could signal broader weakness across blue-collar states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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5 hours ago - Politics & Policy
Reliably red Ohio suddenly a red-hot mess for GOP
* Alex Isenstadt
*
*
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see more of our stories on Google.
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!Illustration of the Ohio state flag with an angry emoji face as the red circle.
*Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images*
Ohio, the red state that helped fuel President Trump's political comeback — and launched his presumed heir, JD Vance, onto the national stage — has become one of the GOP's biggest headaches for the midterms.
**Why it matters:** Republicans are struggling up and down the ballot in the Rust Belt state, which transformed from a perennial battleground into a Republican stronghold under Trump.
* Ohio's GOP is scrambling under the weight of domestic abuse allegations, sluggish campaigns and a working-class rebellion.
**Zoom in:** The most immediate concern is the race in northeastern Ohio's normally red 7th House District, where Rep. Max Miller faces allegations that he abused his ex-wife and daughter, which Miller has denied.
* Trump, who previously called the allegations a family matter, phoned Miller on Monday and expressed worries about his candidacy, three sources briefed on the call told Axios.
* "It's not looking good for you," the president told Miller, the sources said. "I'm hearing from people you're not going to win."
* Miller told Trump he was staying in the race.
**For Ohio Republicans,** Miller's situation has muddied their prospects in a November election that will be a key test of whether Trump's populist coalition can withstand the growing discontent with his war in Iran and the economy.
* Republicans now say they'll spend tens of millions of dollars in Ohio races they once were heavily favored to win this fall.
* It's a striking turn of events: Two years ago, Trump won Ohio by 11 points — the largest margin in Ohiofor any winning presidential candidate in four decades.
* "Ohio is ground zeroof the environment this cycle," a national Republican strategist tells Axios. "Take a GOP voter depression, mix it with the war in Iran, and now sprinkle with some Max Miller abuse \[allegations], and you've got the recipe for a very dicey outcome in November."
**The races giving Republicans the most heartburn:**
**1\. Miller's debacle**
**The ex-wife he's accused of abusing** is Emily Moreno, the daughter of Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno.
* Strategists from both parties agree the allegations have helped Democrat Brian Poindexter run neck-and-neck with Miller in the conservative House district.
* Republicans worry that Democrats will run ads tying Miller to other Ohio candidates, who are beginning to face uncomfortable questions about whether they support Miller.
**One leading Republican** definitely does not: Moreno, who over the weekend said his former son-in-law "should not serve" in Congress and called on him to resign.
* Other Ohio Republicans are holding out hope that Miller quits and is replaced on the ballot by state Sen. Jane Timken — a move that would have to happen by Wednesday.
* But as he told Trump on Monday, Miller has vowed to stay in the race.
**2\. The Senate race**
**Republicans say they've viewed** private polling showing GOP Sen. Jon Husted in a dead heat against former Sen. Sherrod Brown.
* Brown, a populist-minded Democrat who served three terms before losing his seat to Moreno in 2024, has outraised Husted by nearly 3 to 1.
* Republicans concede Brown has found a potent line of attack against Husted by casting him as "the face of data centers in Ohio."
* Some Republicans worry that Husted has run a lackluster campaign and hasn't distinguished himself since being appointed to succeed Vance last year.
**But a senior Republican** told Axios that Husted has taken steps to get on track, including by hiring veteran strategist Matt Mason to help oversee his campaign.
* Others noted that Moreno was trailing Brown at this point two years ago, but ended up winning by 4 points.
**3\. The governor's race**
**Polls are showing** former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in a neck-and-neck race against Democrat Amy Acton.
* Some Republicans say Ramaswamy, an Ivy League-educated former biotech investor, has struggled to win over the state's blue-collar voters.
* He's also faced some backlash from conservatives, particularly over his support for developing data centers for AI. He was heckled at a libertarian conference last week.
**Still, Republicans say Ramaswamy** appears to be in better shape than Miller or Husted, and that he's the most likely of the three to win in November.
**What we're watching:** Some Republicans fear the party's struggles in Ohio could signal broader weakness across blue-collar states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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