House Republicans on track to lose majority
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Nonpartisan election forecasters predict House Republicans are on track to lose their majority just over a month before the midterm elections, as a major political analyst shifted 15 races toward Democrats on Friday. Democrats need only a net gain of three seats to take control of the chamber.
House Republicans on track to lose majority
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Updated 32 mins ago - Politics & Policy
House Republicans on track to lose majority
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!Animated illustration of the continental United States with red and blue districts rearranging themselves within it.
*Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios*
House Republicans are on track to lose their majority just a little over one month out from the midterm elections, according to a nonpartisan election forecaster.
**Why it matters:** Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday, the latest sign that the political environment is deteriorating for Republicans.
* Democrats only need a net gain of three seats to take the majority.
* Cook now projects Democrats are most likely to gain between five and 15 seats, which would give them a 220-230 seat majority next year.
**The big picture:** Republicans have spent much of the cycle arguing that redistricting and a sizable financial advantage would give them more breathing room.
* But new Democratic maps in California and Utah are largely offsetting Republicans' redistricting gains elsewhere, according to Cook.
* Republicans still hold a financial edge over Democrats. The National Republican Congressional Committee entered the final stretch with $13 million more in cash on hand than the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — a record advantage for this point in the cycle.
**State of play:** Democrats are favored in 208 races, compared with 205 for Republicans after Friday's ratings changes.
* There are now 17 Republican-held seats rated as Toss Ups, compared with just five Democratic-held seats.
* Republicans would need to win a majority of the Toss Up races to keep control of the House, according to Cook.
**Zoom out:** Some of the most competitive House races are overwhelmingly in districts President Trump won in 2024.
* Trump is underwater in many of those districts, driven in large part by dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy, according to Cook.
* The median Toss Up district voted for Trump by 7 percentage points in 2024.
**What they're saying:** "Nobody outside the D.C. bubble cares what a bunch of pundits slap on a race rating," NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella told Axios in a statement.
* "House races are won in the districts, and Republicans have the stronger ground game, air superiority across the battleground, and historic financial firepower while Democrats are still begging for cash just to prop up their socialist bailout fund."
* DCCC Communications Director Courtney Rice told Axios: "The floor is falling out from underneath House Republicans. After two years of raising costs and lying to the American people, they've all but assured that they will lose the majority in November."
*Editor's note: This story has been updated with comment from the NRCC and DCCC.*
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Updated 32 mins ago - Politics & Policy
House Republicans on track to lose majority
* Kate Santaliz
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!Animated illustration of the continental United States with red and blue districts rearranging themselves within it.
*Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios*
House Republicans are on track to lose their majority just a little over one month out from the midterm elections, according to a nonpartisan election forecaster.
**Why it matters:** Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday, the latest sign that the political environment is deteriorating for Republicans.
* Democrats only need a net gain of three seats to take the majority.
* Cook now projects Democrats are most likely to gain between five and 15 seats, which would give them a 220-230 seat majority next year.
**The big picture:** Republicans have spent much of the cycle arguing that redistricting and a sizable financial advantage would give them more breathing room.
* But new Democratic maps in California and Utah are largely offsetting Republicans' redistricting gains elsewhere, according to Cook.
* Republicans still hold a financial edge over Democrats. The National Republican Congressional Committee entered the final stretch with $13 million more in cash on hand than the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — a record advantage for this point in the cycle.
**State of play:** Democrats are favored in 208 races, compared with 205 for Republicans after Friday's ratings changes.
* There are now 17 Republican-held seats rated as Toss Ups, compared with just five Democratic-held seats.
* Republicans would need to win a majority of the Toss Up races to keep control of the House, according to Cook.
**Zoom out:** Some of the most competitive House races are overwhelmingly in districts President Trump won in 2024.
* Trump is underwater in many of those districts, driven in large part by dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy, according to Cook.
* The median Toss Up district voted for Trump by 7 percentage points in 2024.
**What they're saying:** "Nobody outside the D.C. bubble cares what a bunch of pundits slap on a race rating," NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella told Axios in a statement.
* "House races are won in the districts, and Republicans have the stronger ground game, air superiority across the battleground, and historic financial firepower while Democrats are still begging for cash just to prop up their socialist bailout fund."
* DCCC Communications Director Courtney Rice told Axios: "The floor is falling out from underneath House Republicans. After two years of raising costs and lying to the American people, they've all but assured that they will lose the majority in November."
*Editor's note: This story has been updated with comment from the NRCC and DCCC.*
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