Would Another War Help Netanyahu Win Reelection?
Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy
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As Israeli elections approach, Prime Minister Netanyahu faces declining poll numbers, prompting analysts to warn he may resort to military escalation or manufacturing a security crisis to salvage his reelection campaign. While a recent bombing of a Syrian air base hints at his strategy, Trump administration constraints and the volatile West Bank situation limit his options.
Would Another War Help Israel’s Netanyahu Win Reelection?
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Analysis:
Would Another War Help Netanyahu Win Reelection?
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Analysis
Would Another War Help Netanyahu Win Reelection?
Some Israelis worry that he might manufacture a security crisis ahead of the vote.
By **David E. Rosenberg**, the economics editor and a columnist for the English edition of *Haaretz* and the author of *Israel’s Technology Economy.*
!Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a press conference in Jerusalem on March 19.
*Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a press conference in Jerusalem on March 19.*
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a press conference in Jerusalem on March 19. Ronen Zvulun / POOL / AFP via Getty Images
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September 3, 2026, 7:24 AM
Israeli elections are less than two months away, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s prospects are not looking good. Opinion polls show support for his Likud party stagnating or even declining, while the main opposition party is steadily rising. The scare tactics that Netanyahu employed so successfully in the past against his rivals aren’t gaining traction this time. Meanwhile, a clutch of new right-wing parties threatens to divide his bloc and steal votes from Likud.
Israel-Hamas War
MORE ON THIS TOPIC
So, what can Netanyahu do to rescue himself from the very real risk of being voted out of power?
Israeli elections are less than two months away, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s prospects are not looking good. Opinion polls show support for his Likud party stagnating or even declining, while the main opposition party is steadily rising. The scare tactics that Netanyahu employed so successfully in the past against his rivals aren’t gaining traction this time. Meanwhile, a clutch of new right-wing parties threatens to divide his bloc and steal votes from Likud.
Israel-Hamas War
MORE ON THIS TOPIC
So, what can Netanyahu do to rescue himself from the very real risk of being voted out of power?
Political analysts and commentators have warned that Netanyahu might disrupt the election by encouraging (if not orchestrating) violence, deploying the police against the opposition, delegitimizing the Central Elections Committee that oversees the vote and, if all else fails, raising Trump-style “stolen election” claims after the polls close. While none of these threats has materialized so far, the campaign gets underway in earnest only on Sept. 7, when the parties submit their final election slates.
However, there is one campaign tactic that Netanyahu may have already set into motion, namely, to create one or more security crises. The aim would be to polish his now-tarnished “Mr. Security” reputation and give more moderate voters who have fled the Likud second thoughts about putting the country into the untested hands of Netanyahu’s main rival, Gadi Eisenkot. Netanyahu wouldn’t necessarily have to start a full-fledged war. Instead, he could instigate a military confrontation and allow it to escalate—to a point where he could plausibly argue that there was no choice but to go to war.
A preview of this may have occurred Aug. 18, when Israeli fighter jets bombed the Abu al-Duhur air base in Syria. Netanyahu and his defense minister, Israel Katz, said the attack was meant to warn Turkey against deepening its military presence in Syria. A Turkish military delegation had indeed visited the base, reportedly to deploy drones and air defenses there. Israel has legitimate concerns about Turkish aspirations in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East, but many observers—including Tom Barrack, U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoy to Turkey and Syria—expressed doubts about the security claim. “One theory is they were just baiting Turkey, and it’s a very aggressive, but maybe well-received, pre-election concept,” Barrack speculated.
On other fronts, Netanyahu’s ability to stir up trouble is constrained by Trump. Iran, which remains the Israeli public’s biggest source of anxiety, has effectively been put off limits by the U.S. president, who has made it clear that he doesn’t want war to flare up again, at least until after the United States’ midterm elections in November. In Gaza and Lebanon, where Trump has imposed cease-fires, Netanyahu also has limited room to maneuver.
Aggressive behavior on the Syrian-Turkish front poses risks, as well. Washington is backing Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s efforts to stabilize the country and align it with the West, and views Turkey’s military assistance as a helpful component. The United States, which has presided over security talks between Syria and Israel, doesn’t want Israel to undermine Sharaa. Striking Syria and precipitating a crisis or worse with Turkey, therefore, might be too risky in terms of Netanyahu’s already strained relations with Trump.
Still, in recent weeks, the Israeli prime minister has been increasingly calling out Turkey as a threat, as if he is preparing the public for a confrontation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has responded with inflammatory rhetoric of his own toward Israel. Given Trump’s short attention span and historic tolerance for Israeli cease-fire infractions in Gaza and Lebanon, Netanyahu may get the green light he needs.
The real danger, however, is the West Bank. The violence by extremist settlers that began not long after the 2023 Hamas attacks has grown in recent weeks and become more brazen. Extremis
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Analysis:
Would Another War Help Netanyahu Win Reelection?
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Analysis
Would Another War Help Netanyahu Win Reelection?
Some Israelis worry that he might manufacture a security crisis ahead of the vote.
By **David E. Rosenberg**, the economics editor and a columnist for the English edition of *Haaretz* and the author of *Israel’s Technology Economy.*
!Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a press conference in Jerusalem on March 19.
*Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a press conference in Jerusalem on March 19.*
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a press conference in Jerusalem on March 19. Ronen Zvulun / POOL / AFP via Getty Images
1. Get audio access with any FP subscription.
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September 3, 2026, 7:24 AM
Israeli elections are less than two months away, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s prospects are not looking good. Opinion polls show support for his Likud party stagnating or even declining, while the main opposition party is steadily rising. The scare tactics that Netanyahu employed so successfully in the past against his rivals aren’t gaining traction this time. Meanwhile, a clutch of new right-wing parties threatens to divide his bloc and steal votes from Likud.
Israel-Hamas War
So, what can Netanyahu do to rescue himself from the very real risk of being voted out of power?
Israeli elections are less than two months away, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s prospects are not looking good. Opinion polls show support for his Likud party stagnating or even declining, while the main opposition party is steadily rising. The scare tactics that Netanyahu employed so successfully in the past against his rivals aren’t gaining traction this time. Meanwhile, a clutch of new right-wing parties threatens to divide his bloc and steal votes from Likud.
Israel-Hamas War
So, what can Netanyahu do to rescue himself from the very real risk of being voted out of power?
Political analysts and commentators have warned that Netanyahu might disrupt the election by encouraging (if not orchestrating) violence, deploying the police against the opposition, delegitimizing the Central Elections Committee that oversees the vote and, if all else fails, raising Trump-style “stolen election” claims after the polls close. While none of these threats has materialized so far, the campaign gets underway in earnest only on Sept. 7, when the parties submit their final election slates.
However, there is one campaign tactic that Netanyahu may have already set into motion, namely, to create one or more security crises. The aim would be to polish his now-tarnished “Mr. Security” reputation and give more moderate voters who have fled the Likud second thoughts about putting the country into the untested hands of Netanyahu’s main rival, Gadi Eisenkot. Netanyahu wouldn’t necessarily have to start a full-fledged war. Instead, he could instigate a military confrontation and allow it to escalate—to a point where he could plausibly argue that there was no choice but to go to war.
A preview of this may have occurred Aug. 18, when Israeli fighter jets bombed the Abu al-Duhur air base in Syria. Netanyahu and his defense minister, Israel Katz, said the attack was meant to warn Turkey against deepening its military presence in Syria. A Turkish military delegation had indeed visited the base, reportedly to deploy drones and air defenses there. Israel has legitimate concerns about Turkish aspirations in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East, but many observers—including Tom Barrack, U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoy to Turkey and Syria—expressed doubts about the security claim. “One theory is they were just baiting Turkey, and it’s a very aggressive, but maybe well-received, pre-election concept,” Barrack speculated.
On other fronts, Netanyahu’s ability to stir up trouble is constrained by Trump. Iran, which remains the Israeli public’s biggest source of anxiety, has effectively been put off limits by the U.S. president, who has made it clear that he doesn’t want war to flare up again, at least until after the United States’ midterm elections in November. In Gaza and Lebanon, where Trump has imposed cease-fires, Netanyahu also has limited room to maneuver.
Aggressive behavior on the Syrian-Turkish front poses risks, as well. Washington is backing Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s efforts to stabilize the country and align it with the West, and views Turkey’s military assistance as a helpful component. The United States, which has presided over security talks between Syria and Israel, doesn’t want Israel to undermine Sharaa. Striking Syria and precipitating a crisis or worse with Turkey, therefore, might be too risky in terms of Netanyahu’s already strained relations with Trump.
Still, in recent weeks, the Israeli prime minister has been increasingly calling out Turkey as a threat, as if he is preparing the public for a confrontation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has responded with inflammatory rhetoric of his own toward Israel. Given Trump’s short attention span and historic tolerance for Israeli cease-fire infractions in Gaza and Lebanon, Netanyahu may get the green light he needs.
The real danger, however, is the West Bank. The violence by extremist settlers that began not long after the 2023 Hamas attacks has grown in recent weeks and become more brazen. Extremis
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Source: Foreign Policy
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