Why Iceland Might Finally Join the EU

Iceland EU Referendum: Will the Country Resume Talks to Join the Bloc?

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Analysis:

Why Iceland Might Finally Join the EU

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Analysis

Why Iceland Might Finally Join the EU

The Nordic country has long evaded the bloc. After a referendum on Saturday, that might change.

August 26, 2026, 8:45 AM

By **Gloria Dickie**, a Canadian journalist and former global climate and environment correspondent at Reuters.

!The flag of Iceland billows on a pole in front of a small red A-frame building with a steep roof. Beyond hte building are snow-capped mountain and fluffy white clouds drifting across a bright blue sky.

*The flag of Iceland billows on a pole in front of a small red A-frame building with a steep roof. Beyond hte building are snow-capped mountain and fluffy white clouds drifting across a bright blue sky.*

The national flag flies over Djupivogur, Iceland, on Feb. 7, 2018. Getty Images/Peter Adams

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“It has been said,” British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once remarked, “whoever possesses Iceland holds a pistol firmly pointed at England, America, and Canada.”

Churchill was often preoccupied with the defense of Iceland during World War II, recognizing the tiny island in the middle of the North Atlantic to be of outsized importance in the global power struggle. In 1940, he sent troops into neutral Iceland in hopes of staving off a German counterinvasion. By the following summer, Britain’s army was stretched thin, and Churchill transferred Iceland’s defense to the United States—an obligation that remains to this day.

“It has been said,” British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once remarked, “whoever possesses Iceland holds a pistol firmly pointed at England, America, and Canada.”

Churchill was often preoccupied with the defense of Iceland during World War II, recognizing the tiny island in the middle of the North Atlantic to be of outsized importance in the global power struggle. In 1940, he sent troops into neutral Iceland in hopes of staving off a German counterinvasion. By the following summer, Britain’s army was stretched thin, and Churchill transferred Iceland’s defense to the United States—an obligation that remains to this day.

Iceland’s strategic position at the crossroads of North America and Europe has again attracted attention from those to its east and west. Any Russian vessel leaving the Kola Peninsula must transit through the stretch of ocean between Greenland, Iceland, and Britain to reach the Atlantic. This chokepoint has long been a surveillance priority for NATO, of which Iceland is a founding member.

!A black-and-white photograph of Winston Churchill as he walks along a line of American troops in uniform, standing at ready with their rifles beside them.

*A black-and-white photograph of Winston Churchill as he walks along a line of American troops in uniform, standing at ready with their rifles beside them.*

Winston Churchill visits Reykjavik, Iceland, on Aug. 16, 1941.Getty Images/Mirrorpix

At the same time, if an attack were ever to come from the United States, Iceland would provide a crucial hub to defend mainland Europe. And yet, the island—with no military might of its own—has so far managed to evade those that would aim to control its barrel, so to speak.

On Aug. 29, however, Icelanders will head to the polls for a national referendum on whether the country should restart negotiations to join the European Union as its 28th member. Though the Nordic country has been a member of the European Economic Area since its inception in the 1990s, Icelanders have long resisted any move that could erode the island’s sovereignty. With pollsters predicting a near dead heat in the vote, that could soon change.

---

!A cityscape taken in in Reykjavik looks down a sidewalk, with multiple bus stops in view with matching signs reading “Natural resources for sale? No thanks." A few people walk along the sidewalk beside the bus stops.

*A cityscape taken in in Reykjavik looks down a sidewalk, with multiple bus stops in view with matching signs reading “Natural resources for sale? No thanks." A few people walk along the sidewalk beside the bus stops.*

Signs reading “Natural resources for sale? No thanks” cover bus stops in Reykjavik, Iceland, ahead of the country’s upcoming referendum, seen on Aug. 25, 2026.Getty Images/Jonathan Nackstrand

The EU question has lingered over the country like a brewing storm for more than a decade. Iceland last mulled ascension into the halls of Brussels in 2009, when it was teetering on the brink of financial ruin. By 2013, however, the economic crisis had subsided—thanks, in no small part, to a tourism boom sprung from the country’s volcanic and glacial wonders. Taking heed of shifting public sentiment, the government put accession talks on indefinite hold.

Iceland now has one of the strongest economies in Europe per capita, though the rapid upswing of the 2010s has slowed. Yet the issue of whether Iceland should forgo its insular position has again been brought to the table—hijacking Icelanders’ otherwise peaceful retreat to distant summer houses, far removed from the politics of Reykjavik.

This time around, Iceland’s interest in the EU has seemingly emerged as a reaction to matters of security and defense, not finances. The country’s foreign minister, Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir, has invoked U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to seize Greenland as a warning sign for Iceland—and the EU’s support for Denmark