How Close Are Ethiopia and Eritrea to All-out War?

How Close Are Ethiopia and Eritrea to All-out War? | International Crisis Group

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!Hold Your Fire

**Podcast** / Africa 09 October 2026 **1 minutes**

How Close Are Ethiopia and Eritrea to All-out War?

*In this episode of* *Hold Your Fire!**, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, Alan Boswell, to discuss the fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, the risk of direct war between Ethiopia and Eritrea and what may prevent further escalation.*

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* Horn of Africa
* Ethiopia/Eritrea

This week on *Hold Your Fire!*, Richard is joined by Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, to discuss the fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and the risk of an all-out war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They examine federal forces’ recapture of Tigray’s capital Mekelle and what has changed since the previous war. They explore Eritrea’s calculations in backing its former enemy, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and whether Ethiopian advances toward the Eritrean border could bring the two countries into direct conflict. They also discuss Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access and how it has further fuelled tensions with Eritrea. Turning to the wider region, they assess how Middle