IEA Sees 5.7 Million Bpd Oil Supply Plunge as Gulf Recovery Slips to 2027
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The International Energy Agency has slashed its 2026 global oil supply forecast by an additional 1.4 million barrels per day, now projecting a 5.7-million-bpd decline amid delayed Gulf production recovery. The widening gap between IEA and OPEC demand forecasts reflects the mounting impact of regional tensions on both supply availability and global consumption.
The IEA just took another 1.4 million barrels per day out of its 2026 global oil supply outlook, and it no longer expects normal Gulf flows to return this year, according to a new agency report released on Friday.
Global oil supply is now expected to fall by 5.7 million bpd in 2026, or roughly 6%, compared with the 4.3-million-bpd decline the agency forecast just one month ago. The delayed recovery of Middle Eastern production has pushed the return of normal Gulf supplies into 2027.
Global oil stocks fell at a rate of 3.1 million bpd in August, leaving inventories at 7.8 billion barrels, their lowest since 2023. In July, the IEA had put the cumulative inventory loss since the Iran war began at 410 million barrels.
Saudi Arabia accounted for a large chunk of August’s deterioration. Saudi crude supply plunged 2.3 million bpd during the month to just 6 million bpd, its lowest level in more than three decades, after attacks hit facilities and shipping routes. OPEC+ production fell 1.8 million bpd to 38.8 million bpd.
The shortage is already destroying demand.
The IEA now expects global oil consumption to fall by 2.5 million bpd this year, compared with the 1.6-million-bpd contraction it forecast in August. Record fuel prices are forcing consumers to use less, particularly as refinery disruptions tighten diesel and other product markets.
Supply is disappearing faster.
That puts the IEA nearly 2.9 million bpd away from OPEC on 2026 demand. OPEC said Thursday that it still expects global oil consumption to grow by 380,000 bpd this year.
The two forecasters converge in 2027. The IEA expects demand growth of 2.6 million bpd next year, while OPEC sees 2.36 million bpd.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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Global oil supply is now expected to fall by 5.7 million bpd in 2026, or roughly 6%, compared with the 4.3-million-bpd decline the agency forecast just one month ago. The delayed recovery of Middle Eastern production has pushed the return of normal Gulf supplies into 2027.
Global oil stocks fell at a rate of 3.1 million bpd in August, leaving inventories at 7.8 billion barrels, their lowest since 2023. In July, the IEA had put the cumulative inventory loss since the Iran war began at 410 million barrels.
Saudi Arabia accounted for a large chunk of August’s deterioration. Saudi crude supply plunged 2.3 million bpd during the month to just 6 million bpd, its lowest level in more than three decades, after attacks hit facilities and shipping routes. OPEC+ production fell 1.8 million bpd to 38.8 million bpd.
The shortage is already destroying demand.
The IEA now expects global oil consumption to fall by 2.5 million bpd this year, compared with the 1.6-million-bpd contraction it forecast in August. Record fuel prices are forcing consumers to use less, particularly as refinery disruptions tighten diesel and other product markets.
Supply is disappearing faster.
That puts the IEA nearly 2.9 million bpd away from OPEC on 2026 demand. OPEC said Thursday that it still expects global oil consumption to grow by 380,000 bpd this year.
The two forecasters converge in 2027. The IEA expects demand growth of 2.6 million bpd next year, while OPEC sees 2.36 million bpd.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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