Latinos' rejection of GOP boosts Dems in Texas upsets

Latinos' rejection of GOP boosts Dems in Texas upsets

7 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Latinos' rejection of GOP boosts Dems in Texas upsets

*Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios*

Latino voters helped Democrats break Republicans' decades-long grip on Texas and reclaim both chambers of Congress on Tuesday, casting doubt on President Trump's historic 2024 gains with the fast-growing electorate.

**Why it matters:** Republicans bet Trump's Latino breakthrough two years ago would create a lasting GOP realignment in Texas and beyond. Tuesday's results exposed how quickly those gains could unravel — and raised new questions about Republicans' coalition heading into 2028.

* Early results show Hispanic voters' shift aided Democrats in capturing a Senate seat and the governorship in Texas for the first time in a generation.
* Tuesday's results — particularly in South Texas border counties — reflected some of the anger among Hispanics over high prices and the Trump administration's immigration enforcement.
* "This is what happens when you mess with the Latino community. We are sending a clear message," said Hector Sanchez Barba, president and CEO of the voting group Mi Familia Vota.

**By the numbers:** Early NBC News exit poll results showed Latino voters moving away from Republicans.

* Democrats' 16-point advantage in Latino party identification grew from 10 points in 2024, according to NBC's polling.
* Some 43% of Latino voters identified as Democrats, up from 39% in 2024. Republican identification slipped from 29% to 27%.
* In the early NBC exit poll, 75% of voters nationally described the economy as struggling, while 65% said Trump's policies had made economic conditions worse.

**State of play:** Democrats reclaimed the House and Senate while ending Republicans' statewide winning streak in Texas dating to 1994.

* Democratic state Rep. James Talarico defeated Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, winning a Senate seat Democrats last captured in 1988.
* Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa ousted Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, becoming Texas' first elected Latina governor.
* Early returns also suggested Latino voters helped Democrats win crucial House contests in Colorado and Georgia.

*Comedian Cristela Alonzo attends an election night watch party for Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa at Assembly Hall in Austin, Texas. Photo: Joel Angel Juarez/Getty Images*

**What they're saying:** "You know how Tim Russert would always say 'Florida, Florida, Florida?' For the last two cycles, I kept saying Texas, Texas, Texas. That's how I feel right now," Voto Latino CEO Maria Teresa Kumar told Axios.

* Kumar said the Democrats' historic Texas wins changes 2028 and will transform how presidential candidates talk to Latino voters and see Texas as purple.
* "There was this notion that we're a sleeping giant. Now, we're jumping up and down and waving our fist above the head," Janet Murguía, president and CEO of the Latino civil rights group UnidosUS told Axios.

**Zoom in:** The clearest tests of the Latino shift came in Texas counties that Republicans had celebrated as evidence of their growing strength.

* **Cameron County,** which includes Brownsville and South Padre Island: Talarico led by 38 points in early, unofficial returns. Trump won by 6 points there in 2024.
* **Hidalgo County,** another majority-Latino border county: Talarico led by 47 points. Trump won it two years ago by 3 points.
* **Webb County,** home to Laredo: Talarico led by 49 points; it was Trump +2 in 2024.

**Context:** Trump's 2024 success shattered longstanding assumptions about Latino voters.

* A Pew Research Center analysis found Trump won 48% of Latino voters in 2024, compared with 36% in 2020.
* An August Axios-reported poll of 17 competitive House districts foreshadowed the reversal, showing Democrats leading 58%–35% among Latino registered voters.

*Supporters react during a midterm election night watch party for Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico at the Long Center in Austin, Texas. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Image*

**Reality check:** A Democratic rebound doesn't mean Latino voters have returned to their old political loyalties.

* Democrats' 16-point advantage in Latino party identification remains far below their 33-point advantage in 2018, according to NBC.

**Republicans may have mistaken** Trump's appeal for lasting GOP loyalty. Democrats risk confusing a backlash against Trump with renewed allegiance to their party.

* A September Axios analysis found 62% of Latino registered voters in 17 battleground districts trusted Democrats more to lower prices, compared with 36% who trusted Republicans.
* Economic frustration gave Democrats an opening without guaranteeing lasting support.

**The bottom line:** Trump's Latino breakthrough reshaped politics in 2024. Two years later, those voters reminded both parties that winning their support once doesn't mean keeping it.