The Iran War Has Changed the World Forever

The Iran War Has Changed the World Forever – Foreign Policy

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Essay: The Iran War Has Changed the World Forever

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Essay

The Iran War Has Changed the World Forever

Some dramatic long-term consequences are just beginning to come into view.

October 19, 2026, 6:00 AM

By **Kenneth M. Pollack**, the vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute.

!Three people rest on a sandy beach while a large, partially submerged and tilted ship sits out in the water in the background. The sky above is a hazy gray with cloud cover.

*Three people rest on a sandy beach while a large, partially submerged and tilted ship sits out in the water in the background. The sky above is a hazy gray with cloud cover.*

A photo obtained from Iran’s ISNA news agency shows Iranians with a ship in the background on Suru Beach, located along the Strait of Hormuz, in Bandar Abbas, Iran, on June 1. Amirhossein Khorgooei/ISNA/AFP via Getty Images

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Many of the immediate consequences of the Israeli-American war with Iran are already clear. The further emergence of drones and missiles as dominant weapons of war; the danger to the global economy from the threats to vital chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb; and the inadequacy of U.S. weapons procurement, among other issues, have garnered widespread and entirely merited attention.

Yet as important enough as those developments are, the Iran conflict could also have far wider and longer-term implications—changes that could be truly transformative for the Middle East region and the rest of the world. Decades from now, we might look back on this conflict as a watershed event that fundamentally reshaped what had been bedrock principles of modern geopolitics.

Many of the immediate consequences of the Israeli-American war with Iran are already clear. The further emergence of drones and missiles as dominant weapons of war; the danger to the global economy from the threats to vital chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb; and the inadequacy of U.S. weapons procurement, among other issues, have garnered widespread and entirely merited attention.

Yet as important enough as those developments are, the Iran conflict could also have far wider and longer-term implications—changes that could be truly transformative for the Middle East region and the rest of the world. Decades from now, we might look back on this conflict as a watershed event that fundamentally reshaped what had been bedrock principles of modern geopolitics.

While it would have been better to have discerned these potential break points before the war, there may still be time to take action to try to steer them in favorable directions. As always, the first requirement is to recognize the possible seismic changes that may already be underway.

---

Gulf States Shifting to Offense—and More War

!Aerial satellite footage shows a coastline where a thick plume of black smoke rises from a port area and stretches inland over mountainous terrain.

*Aerial satellite footage shows a coastline where a thick plume of black smoke rises from a port area and stretches inland over mountainous terrain.*

A satellite view shows a major fire following an Iranian drone strike at the Port of Salalah oil storage tanks in Oman on March 11.Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2026

There has been no shortage of commentary on the new technologies of combat highlighted by the Iran war, with the United States having been mostly focused on defensive systems. Americans have both marveled at the superb performance of Western interceptors and hyperventilated over their dwindling stockpiles of them. However, the Persian Gulf states—and likely many other threatened middle and smaller powers—have taken another lesson from the conflict: The best defense is a good offense.

U.S., Israeli, European, and South Korean interceptor munitions have performed brilliantly, shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. Coupled with the ability of Western fighter aircraft to shoot down drones and cruise missiles—and to suppress the launches of ballistic missiles—Iran has done far less damage to its targets than would otherwise have been the case. In short, air and missile defenses have performed extremely well so far. That’s not nothing.

The problem is that it has not proved to be anything close to enough. Because drones; cruise missiles; and even, to a considerable extent, ballistic missiles are so much cheaper, easier to produce, store, hide, and launch than most of the interceptors that the United States and its allies use against them, Iran has been able to keep making more and launching them at targets across the Gulf, Jordan, and Israel. Even though the defenses are stopping roughly 90 percent of them, the 10 percent that are getting through are 100 percent too many.

Only the Israeli population is inured enough and its infrastructure hardened enough to prove undaunted by Iran’s counterstrikes. In stark contrast, the same levels of damage have proved catastrophic for the Gulf states. Energy companies, shipping companies, and insurance companies are all balking at the prospect of functioning with the residual threat of constant Iranian attacks, even if more than 90 percent are defeated. The 10 percent that have gotten through have done significant physical damage and far greater psychological damage. They called into question the current and planned future socioeconomi