‘A warning sign for polling’: Why one GOP pollster thinks a blue wave may fall short

‘A warning sign for polling’: Why one GOP pollster thinks a blue wave may fall short - POLITICO

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‘A warning sign for polling’: Why one GOP pollster thinks a blue wave may fall short

Echelon Insights’ Patrick Ruffini told POLITICO he thinks polling is overstating Democrats’ chances of flipping Senate races in historically deep-red territory.

!President Donald Trump and Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) meet at a campaign rally in Ohio.

*President Donald Trump and Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) meet at a campaign rally in Ohio on Oct. 3, 2026 -- the day after Trump approved disaster aid for the state. Husted faces a tight election contest against Democrat Sherrod Brown, a former U.S. senator. | Mark Schiefelbein/AP*

By Aaron Pellish

10/19/2026 7:00 AM PDT

Democrats are salivating over, and Republicans are bracing for, a potentially massive blue wave. One GOP pollster is urging everyone to calm down.

Patrick Ruffini, a founding partner at Echelon Insights, has been loudly throwing cold water on Democrats’ hopes of sweeping the red state Senate seats that have become battlegrounds in a worsening national environment for Republicans.

“The polls are, I think, intentionally inflating the size of the battleground,” Ruffini told POLITICO.

Democrats are pushing to flip Senate seats in Iowa, Texas, Ohio and Alaska — all states that President Donald Trump won by at least 11 points in 2024 — with dreams of going even deeper into the map Kansas, South Carolina and even Mississippi. Sensing a potential disaster, Republicans have significantly curtailed their investments in North Carolina and Georgia to direct resources elsewhere.

* Polling
* 2026 Elections
* Mary Peltola
* James Talarico
* Sherrod Brown
* Jon Husted
* Ken Paxton
* Dan Sullivan

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